Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb61d…f630 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$1
world 28% $0
other 11% −$2
sports 11% −$6
tech 6% −$15
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 22% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 20 +92.9% +74.6% 20% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 30 +61.8% +46.4% 20% 3% -10.1%
all 40 +44.7% +30.9% 38% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.9% 5% -10.3%
10% +18.4% 2% -18.9%
15% +7.0% 2% -26.8%
20% -3.5% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +93% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage533d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $94 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 +$1 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $37 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $35 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $13 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 27 $138 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $92 −$2 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $155 −$15 -10%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $35 +$2 +7%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $227 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $249 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $226 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $227 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $227 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15? Feb 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Will PAOK win on 2025-02-13? Feb 13 $4 $0 +4%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Jan 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 24m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $23 24m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $13 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $13 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $41 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $41 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $35 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $15 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $39 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.34 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records