Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:47:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb621…a47a sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$462 (-9%) realized −$448 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$143
other 29% −$85
politics 25% −$706
world 12% +$170
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 24 -7.1% -15.9% 50% 46% -16.8%
≤90d 42 -27.0% -34.0% 43% 38% -21.0%
all 65 -12.1% -20.5% 48% 45% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -18.2%
10% -28.1% 37% -26.0%
15% -35.0% 32% -33.2%
20% -41.4% 26% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$54 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized−$448
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage257d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-07-01? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $151 +$19 +12%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$70 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $40 +$12 +29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -88%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $182 +$99 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$2 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $30 +$32 +106%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 03 $51 +$31 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $100 +$50 +50%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 26 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 26 $30 +$16 +52%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Final Stage: USA vs. Venezuela Apr 14 $100 +$33 +33%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 12 $50 +$154 +308%
First Round Pool C: Czechia vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $82 +$18 +22%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Feb 08 $750 −$644 -86%
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis Feb 08 $529 −$62 -12%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 15 $200 +$85 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 77¢ $81 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $31 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 67¢ $98 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over $1 14d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 14d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $101 14d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 14d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 15d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 15d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 15d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $20 15d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 15d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 15d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $20 15d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 16d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 16d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 16d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 16d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $19 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.70 · official $165.70 (match) · 155 history records