Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B6 0xb623…000c crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 516d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%34W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$5
crypto 10% +$1
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses34 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage516d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $81 $81 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? Feb 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in December? Jan 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 02 $60 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $82 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $5,411 −$5 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 16 $36 $0 -0%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 13 $27 $0 -2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? Mar 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 23 $18 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $17 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.40 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Feb 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m? Jan 28 $18 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $81 1h
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $72 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $44 63d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $28 92d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $9 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $27 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $45 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 149d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 151d
Will Solana reach $220 in December? BUY No 100¢ $18 182d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $63 183d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $14 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 242d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $39 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 273d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $21 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $43 303d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $10 334d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $18 335d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 99¢ $54 335d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $36 363d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 366d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.52 · official $80.52 (match) · 102 history records