Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb623…476d other 220 markets active 6h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,627 (-13%) realized −$1,313 · open −$314
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%74W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$11
14 days−$285
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$238
politics 16% −$204
economics 13% −$1,208
sports 8% −$151
world 4% −$112
tech 1% +$8
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +29.8% +17.4% 44% 34% -8.8%
≤30d 80 +31.1% +18.6% 46% 38% -7.8%
≤90d 143 +16.4% +5.3% 43% 36% -30.1%
all 177 +12.8% +2.0% 42% 34% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 34% -26.7%
10% -7.7% 29% -33.7%
15% -16.6% 24% -40.1%
20% -24.8% 21% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$34 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$2,309
Realized−$1,313
Unrealized−$314
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 103
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions43
Markets (closed)177 / 220
History coverage157d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $291 $218 −$73 (-25%)
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $150 $182 +$32 (+22%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $228 $169 −$59 (-26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $152 $140 −$11 (-7%)
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 78¢ 81¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $114 $126 +$12 (+10%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $68 $110 +$42 (+61%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $119 $92 −$27 (-23%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 14¢ 6¢ $207 $87 −$119 (-58%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $60 $81 +$21 (+36%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $76 $77 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $80 $75 −$6 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $66 $61 −$5 (-7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $35 $48 +$13 (+38%)
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+112%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $36 −$15 (-30%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 −$41 -57%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $77 +$11 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +58%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$4 -17%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$35 +53%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$32 +1565%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 18 $20 −$1 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 17 $93 +$89 +96%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Jun 17 $54 +$6 +11%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 +$10 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $214 +$1 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$29 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$17 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $65 +$12 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$20 -59%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$39 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $25 −$3 -12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 13 $25 −$1 -2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Brandon Nakashima vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Sonego vs Ignacio Buse Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mattia Bellucci vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Martin Landaluce Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Luciano Darderi Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 12 $31 −$26 -84%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $74 +$8 +11%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $45 −$38 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 32h
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 32h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 32h
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 91¢ $50 34h
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 34h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 34h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 37h
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2d
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 65¢ $51 2d
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,309.12 · official $2,310.31 (match) · 1291 history records