Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb625…2240 crypto 724 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-3%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%573W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$87
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$127
other 2% −$26
sports 2% +$3
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -12.1% -20.5% 45% 36% -11.7%
≤30d 199 -9.5% -18.1% 47% 34% -16.8%
≤90d 723 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 12% -12.6%
all 723 -5.3% -14.3% 79% 12% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 12% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 8% -21.0%
15% -30.0% 6% -28.6%
20% -36.8% 5% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses573 / 150
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)723 / 724
History coverage53d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 723 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +8%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$2 -32%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +236%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +208%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $18 −$5 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$14 +172%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 39m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $12 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.37 · official $1.38 (match) · 1974 history records