Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb627…2d13 sports 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,490 (+3%) realized +$3,542 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%123W / 104L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$478per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$986est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days−$491
14 days−$83
30 days−$3,187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,499
other 0% +$3
world 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.3% -7.4% 55% 55% -21.9%
≤30d 133 -18.7% -26.4% 44% 44% -25.0%
≤90d 227 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 53% -7.4%
all 227 +1.4% -8.3% 54% 53% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 53% -7.4%
10% -17.0% 48% -16.3%
15% -25.0% 42% -24.4%
20% -32.4% 32% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$260 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$3,542
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses123 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$986
Open positions3
Markets (closed)227 / 232
History coverage87d
Avg bet$478
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 69¢ 100¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+45%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$112 +223%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 −$29 -67%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$22 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $67 −$5 -8%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $25 +$16 +65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$32 +90%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $158 −$156 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$48 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $175 +$235 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $71 −$38 -54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 −$56 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $212 +$101 +48%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $192 +$119 +62%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$94 +93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $78 −$72 -93%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $200 −$199 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $177 −$176 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$41 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$45 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $755 −$753 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$26 +26%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$43 +43%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $102 +$98 +97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $209 +$198 +95%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$23 +46%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $102 +$108 +106%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $51 +$45 +90%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $101 +$33 +32%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $159 +$51 +32%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $149 +$67 +45%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $152 +$90 +59%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $152 +$102 +67%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $405 −$197 -49%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $50 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $162 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $25 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $50 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $51 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 13¢ $14 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will A BUY 26¢ $10 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $43 41h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 64¢ $40 44h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs SELL Solary 59¢ $61 44h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $67 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 97¢ $42 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $25 47h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 45¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 53¢ $101 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $158 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $175 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $51 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 67¢ $101 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $164 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 22¢ $33 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $71 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $101 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 76¢ $56 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $19 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $51 3d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $212 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.51 · official $86.51 · 475 history records