Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb628…be65 politics 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$852 (-1%) realized −$852 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate24%32W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,144per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$814now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$86
other 36% −$457
sports 9% −$315
economics 4% −$7
world 3% −$15
crypto 2% +$5
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -18.4% -26.2% 9% 3% -10.2%
all 133 -8.1% -16.8% 24% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 5% -10.0%
10% -24.8% 5% -18.7%
15% -32.1% 5% -26.5%
20% -38.7% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,631) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$20 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$814
Realized−$852
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,144
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $814 $814 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,913 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,547 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $5,375 −$6 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 07 $2,146 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,048 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,660 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $337 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $486 $0 +0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $822 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,954 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $1,416 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,612 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $2,358 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,684 −$3 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,690 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,956 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,726 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,717 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $5,970 −$5 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $2,264 −$4 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $471 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $556 +$2 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,170 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $8,273 −$8 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $4,721 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $4,926 −$6 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,748 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $2,283 −$2 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,452 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $556 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $557 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $814 46h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,309 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,311 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,396 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,398 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,629 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,631 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,602 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,455 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,457 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,639 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,641 10d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $1,482 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $1,484 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 11d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,594 14d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,596 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 14d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,157 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,658 15d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,660 15d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $902 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $814.08 · official $814.08 (match) · 421 history records