trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 38% | 12% | -11.0% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 45% | 18% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 45% | 18% | -10.7% |
| all | 27 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 56% | 11% | -7.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 11% | -7.5% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 4% | -16.4% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 4% | -24.5% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 4% | -31.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $45 | $45 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Yes | 5¢ | 3¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-25%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 15 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $47 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 14 | $7 | +$1 | +18% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $40 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 11 | $101 | −$10 | -10% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 08 | $26 | $0 | -2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 08 | $7 | +$1 | +15% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 01 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 04 | $103 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 03 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the US sanction Ukraine before April? | Apr 03 | $102 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | Apr 03 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged before April? | Mar 29 | $107 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? | Mar 29 | $104 | +$3 | +3% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? | Mar 24 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $104 | $0 | +0% |
| Georgescu banned from Romania election? | Mar 20 | $61 | +$42 | +69% |
| Will Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw? | Mar 04 | $62 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on February 25 | Mar 04 | $62 | $0 | +1% |