Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb635…5a12 sports 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%37W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 26% −$7
politics 21% −$2
crypto 8% $0
economics 7% −$1
culture 5% −$2
world 2% +$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
all 237 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses37 / 200
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 238
History coverage174d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $125 $0 +0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 12 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $105 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $118 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $84 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $86 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $36 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $68 $0 +0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 30 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $99 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $30 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 26 $233 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $80 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $32 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 24 $79 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $159 −$1 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $39 11d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $39 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $27 24d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $27 24d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $7 32d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $5 35d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $2 35d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $28 37d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $28 37d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $41 69d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $41 69d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $37 69d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $36 69d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $27 69d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $27 69d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $33 69d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $33 70d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 94¢ $31 70d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 96¢ $32 70d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $31 70d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $31 70d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $28 70d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $28 70d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 97¢ $35 70d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 97¢ $35 71d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $38 71d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $38 71d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $40 71d
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.53 · official $28.53 (match) · 848 history records