Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb63a…7637 sports 966 markets active 1h ago coverage 387d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$246 (-1%) realized −$272 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%550W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$8
14 days+$88
30 days−$1,347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$526
other 43% +$146
world 2% +$73
politics 0% +$32
crypto 0% −$50
economics 0% −$6
tech 0% −$6
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -10.1% -18.7% 59% 56% -9.7%
≤30d 186 -27.0% -34.0% 46% 45% -31.5%
≤90d 719 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 56% -11.5%
all 956 -7.0% -15.9% 58% 55% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 55% -10.8%
10% -23.9% 51% -19.4%
15% -31.3% 42% -27.1%
20% -38.0% 28% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses550 / 406
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions10
Markets (closed)956 / 966
History coverage387d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 956 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $70 $80 +$10 (+14%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 100¢ $40 $50 +$9 (+23%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 100¢ $33 $50 +$17 (+51%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $17 $30 +$13 (+72%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 38¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-46%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 69¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+83%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 14¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-69%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $41 +$19 +46%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 −$17 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $21 −$21 -99%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 23 $6 −$5 -97%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $3 −$2 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $16 −$16 -99%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $13 −$12 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $26 −$26 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $19 −$19 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $34 +$16 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $22 +$28 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 +$9 +23%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 +$21 +73%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $34 +$16 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $18 +$12 +70%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $15 +$15 +97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $23 +$7 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $182 +$18 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $14 +$6 +40%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $4 +$6 +129%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $49 +$21 +44%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 +$7 +14%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $17 +$13 +76%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $39 +$11 +29%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 +$20 +41%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$15 +60%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $43 +$7 +18%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $33 +$27 +79%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $29 +$21 +73%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $39 +$11 +27%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $28 −$28 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $13 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $35 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $18 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $41 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $33 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $14 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 7h
Altmaier vs. Bergs: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 7h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Zizou Bergs BUY Daniel Altmaier 38¢ $8 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $17 22h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 43¢ $9 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $18 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $41 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $21 22h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $6 24h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $6 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $4 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 24h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 24h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $31 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 24h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $26 24h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $25 24h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $19 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $34 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.52 · official $264.52 (match) · 2158 history records