Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb63b…d7f2 crypto 490 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,575 (-9%) realized −$2,575 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate60%296W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days−$111
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$2,015
sports 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -24.1% -31.4% 43% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 111 -24.1% -31.4% 43% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 178 -29.2% -35.9% 43% 39% -24.3%
all 490 -16.8% -24.7% 60% 28% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 28% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 14% -24.3%
15% -38.5% 11% -31.6%
20% -44.5% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$24 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,575
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses296 / 194
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)490 / 490
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 490 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$16 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$11 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$35 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $30 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$19 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$13 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$3 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records