Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb63b…69c2 crypto 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$228 (+16%) realized +$226 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%61W / 48L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day60.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$138
other 48% −$99
sports 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +21.4% +9.9% 56% 53% -8.3%
≤30d 109 +21.4% +9.9% 56% 53% -8.3%
≤90d 109 +21.4% +9.9% 56% 53% -8.3%
all 109 +21.4% +9.9% 56% 53% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 53% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -0.6% 46% -17.1%
15% -10.2% 40% -25.1%
20% -19.0% 33% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$226
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses61 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage3d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $271 −$203 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$14 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$14 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$25 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $81 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $271 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.75 · official $81.76 (match) · 204 history records