Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb63e…70f2 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 755d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,030 (+7%) realized +$1,585 · open −$555
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,400per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$663
7 days+$663
14 days+$663
30 days+$663
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$1,031
world 16% +$112
economics 11% +$73
politics 11% −$765
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.1% +4.2% 100% 100% +4.1%
≤30d 2 +15.1% +4.2% 100% 100% +4.1%
≤90d 4 +19.9% +8.5% 100% 100% +8.6%
all 9 -6.8% -15.7% 78% 67% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 67% -2.4%
10% -23.7% 33% -11.7%
15% -31.1% 0% -20.3%
20% -37.9% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$588 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

755d coverage
Net worth$626
Realized+$1,585
Unrealized−$555
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage755d
Avg bet$1,400
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 18¢ $1,181 $626 −$555 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,999 +$316 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,395 +$347 +14%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $2,332 +$728 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $1,999 +$361 +18%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 16 $926 −$926 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Feb 16 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to Minnesota Timberwolves? Feb 09 $732 +$195 +27%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 04 $572 +$161 +28%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $1,587 +$73 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $1,205 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,998 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $1 21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $2,394 21h
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,710 36d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 76¢ $97 36d
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY Yes 76¢ $525 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1,999 48d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $240 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $33 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $114 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $11 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $57 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $39 134d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.29 · official $697.86 · 55 history records