Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb640…01a4 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-53%) realized −$52 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$25
crypto 33% +$13
sports 28% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -67.3%
≤30d 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -67.3%
≤90d 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -67.3%
all 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -67.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.8% 17% -67.3%
10% -70.0% 17% -70.4%
15% -72.9% 17% -73.3%
20% -75.5% 17% -75.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -98% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 12¢ 38¢ $5 $16 +$11 (+212%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$3 -50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.79 · official $19.80 (match) · 22 history records