Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:12:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb642…8507 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$139 (-3%) realized −$139 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$154
14 days−$79
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$91
other 24% −$121
world 6% −$43
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 100% 100% +10.6%
≤30d 19 +9.0% -1.4% 63% 58% -10.9%
≤90d 19 +9.0% -1.4% 63% 58% -10.9%
all 19 +9.0% -1.4% 63% 58% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 58% -10.9%
10% -10.8% 37% -19.4%
15% -19.4% 26% -27.2%
20% -27.3% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$86 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage20d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $227 +$84 +37%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $293 +$46 +16%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $145 +$18 +13%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $27 +$6 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $305 −$43 -14%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1,152 −$421 -36%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $540 +$145 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $64 +$29 +45%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $302 +$69 +23%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $243 +$34 +14%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$24 +78%
AI bubble burst in 2026? Jun 11 $444 −$27 -6%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 11 $96 −$4 -4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $732 −$94 -13%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$10 -194%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $127 +$66 +52%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $5 −$2 -33%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $130 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $263 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $182 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $49 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $45 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $73 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 67¢ $50 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $91 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $125 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $293 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $164 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $145 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $33 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $27 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $262 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $54 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 90¢ $179 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 15¢ $26 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 95¢ $87 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 95¢ $300 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No $9 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 85¢ $242 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 95¢ $29 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 60¢ $266 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 27¢ $4 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 60¢ $10 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 66¢ $11 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 72¢ $12 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 72¢ $12 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 72¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records