Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb644…98a4 crypto 263 markets active 5h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (493 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$223 (-8%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%105W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day493.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$260
sports 6% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (493 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 29% -14.9%
≤30d 263 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 29% -14.9%
≤90d 263 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 29% -14.9%
all 263 +23.0% +11.3% 40% 29% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover493.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.3% 29% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.6% 23% -23.0%
15% -9.1% 19% -30.5%
20% -18.0% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses105 / 158
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)263 / 263
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day493.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 263 Trades
no open positions (57 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$4 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$8 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.43 · official $0.00 · 1632 history records