Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:15:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb649…e988 sports 246 markets active 21h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$797 (+5%) realized +$797 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%125W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$50
14 days+$369
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$421
other 11% +$342
crypto 3% −$59
world 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -14.6% -22.7% 45% 45% +2.0%
≤30d 54 +21.1% +9.6% 54% 54% +9.4%
≤90d 167 +6.2% -3.9% 51% 48% -4.3%
all 242 +4.6% -5.3% 52% 48% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 48% -5.9%
10% -14.4% 43% -14.9%
15% -22.7% 38% -23.1%
20% -30.3% 29% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$41 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$797
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses125 / 117
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 246
History coverage144d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$43 +119%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$16 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $47 −$46 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $116 +$176 +152%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 +$36 +46%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $148 −$45 -30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $32 +$21 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$17 +59%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$13 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $41 +$34 +84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $234 +$127 +54%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $25 +$9 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $28 +$13 +46%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $17 +$26 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 +$55 +360%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $45 −$44 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $47 +$30 +65%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $40 +$22 +54%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$53 +344%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$84 +546%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$9 -59%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$3 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 +$28 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$27 +175%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $146 +$60 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $25 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $112 +$34 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $142 +$37 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $80 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 45h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $25 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $116 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $80 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 5d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $30 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 49¢ $48 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 68¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 59¢ $51 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $27 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $53 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $32 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $28 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $75 7d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $29 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $25 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 577 history records