Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb649…e8b2 sports 246 markets active 19h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$16 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%109W / 136L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day67.1pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$7
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$38
other 11% −$70
crypto 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -5.5% -14.5% 44% 35% -9.7%
≤30d 245 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 35% -13.4%
≤90d 245 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 35% -13.4%
all 245 -13.0% -21.3% 44% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.3% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 21% -21.7%
15% -35.7% 15% -29.3%
20% -42.0% 11% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses109 / 136
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions1
Markets (closed)245 / 246
History coverage12d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day67.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $13 −$8 -58%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -47%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $5 +$10 +186%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $5 −$3 -52%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $8 +$12 +142%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $26 +$3 +12%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $36 −$5 -14%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $21 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 +$5 +14%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$7 -33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $22 −$5 -23%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$6 -20%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$4 -12%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$6 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$33 +596%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 −$10 -14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Málaga CF vs. UD Almería end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 57¢ $4 18h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 26¢ $0 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 75¢ $5 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 26¢ $1 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 26¢ $1 19h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 43¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $5 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 52¢ $5 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY No 93¢ $5 31h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $5 31h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 35¢ $5 40h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi SELL Samuel Heredia 17¢ $4 40h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY No 98¢ $5 41h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 21¢ $5 41h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $5 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $15 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 41h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 87¢ $5 42h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL Senegal 97¢ $6 42h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee SELL Philip Henning 45¢ $2 46h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux SELL Cosme de Ravel 77¢ $20 2d
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Philip Henning 93¢ $5 2d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 29¢ $4 2d
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 36¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 882 history records