Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb64a…e6b3 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.9% +4.9% 71% 57% -0.4%
≤30d 14 +15.9% +4.9% 71% 57% -0.4%
≤90d 14 +15.9% +4.9% 71% 57% -0.4%
all 14 +15.9% +4.9% 71% 57% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.9% 57% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.2% 57% -9.9%
15% -14.3% 50% -18.6%
20% -22.7% 21% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$18 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $35 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records