Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb64e…fec1 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (146 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate64%53W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day145.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$32
other 5% −$18
sports 3% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (146 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 53% -12.6%
≤30d 83 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 53% -12.6%
≤90d 83 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 53% -12.6%
all 83 -2.3% -11.6% 64% 53% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover145.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 53% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 35% -20.9%
15% -27.8% 27% -28.6%
20% -34.9% 18% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses53 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day145.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.97 · official $9.97 (match) · 270 history records