Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb64f…3203 sports 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,404 (-8%) realized −$1,394 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%177W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$50
14 days+$20
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,142
other 17% −$305
crypto 5% +$3
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -17.6% -25.4% 50% 38% -23.0%
≤30d 35 -6.2% -15.2% 60% 54% -8.6%
≤90d 183 -6.3% -15.2% 60% 46% -28.3%
all 267 +1.2% -8.4% 66% 45% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 45% -17.1%
10% -17.2% 27% -25.0%
15% -25.2% 21% -32.3%
20% -32.5% 11% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$35 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$1,394
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses177 / 90
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage132d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 31¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $31 +$9 +29%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$10 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $27 −$9 -35%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 +$6 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$22 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$34 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 +$26 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $45 +$7 +15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$46 +54%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 +$15 +43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$10 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$28 -91%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $5 −$2 -41%
Libema Open (Doubles): Diallo/Hurkacz vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 08 $20 +$16 +80%
Birmingham (Doubles): Chandrasekar/Yuzuki vs Jones/Paris Jun 07 $21 +$21 +98%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $19 −$17 -92%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $22 +$19 +86%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs Pakistan May 31 $45 −$45 -99%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Botswana vs Rwanda May 30 $5 +$2 +48%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $44 +$9 +21%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $10 −$4 -45%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Bhambri/Venus vs Bolelli/Vavassori May 29 $34 +$15 +43%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win? May 28 $35 +$14 +40%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Indonesia vs Nepal May 28 $5 +$2 +36%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $5 $0 -2%
T20 Blast: Leicestershire vs Derbyshire May 27 $5 +$1 +16%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $8 +$7 +82%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 25 $1 $0 -39%
T20 Series England vs. New Zealand, Women: England vs New Zealand May 25 $20 +$4 +19%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Gloucestershire May 24 $45 +$13 +28%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $5 $0 -1%
T20 Blast: Derbyshire vs Durham May 22 $42 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 54¢ $9 21h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score SELL No 79¢ $40 21h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $31 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 61¢ $17 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $18 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 52¢ $18 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 78¢ $27 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $72 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 6d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 67¢ $50 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL No 80¢ $54 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $50 9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 65¢ $50 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $64 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 12d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 80¢ $44 14d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Bangladesh 81¢ $8 14d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Bangladesh 69¢ $45 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.79 · official $19.79 (match) · 798 history records