Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb64f…c974 other 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$956 (-1%) realized −$969 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate61%272W / 173L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$289
other 26% −$321
finance 14% −$763
crypto 12% +$710
politics 7% −$213
economics 5% +$108
tech 2% −$130
sports 1% −$78
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.5% +3.6% 80% 40% -7.3%
≤30d 5 +14.5% +3.6% 80% 40% -7.3%
≤90d 40 -7.6% -16.4% 28% 8% -12.4%
all 445 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 18% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 13% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 8% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$1,065
Realized−$969
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses272 / 173
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions6
Markets (closed)445 / 451
History coverage255d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $992 $1,000 +$8 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 27 $76 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 27 $77 +$1 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 25 $139 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 27 $500 −$1 -0%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 27 $287 −$36 -13%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $298 −$3 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $387 −$51 -13%
Ebola case in the US by June 30? May 16 $133 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 16 $1,519 −$3 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Apr 28 $1,260 −$23 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? Apr 24 $455 −$3 -1%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $1,587 +$8 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Apr 16 $81 $0 +0%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 15? Apr 15 $106 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 15 $740 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,084 +$7 +1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $2,948 −$156 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 13 $3,315 −$432 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 13 $4,155 −$12 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 13 $164 −$7 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 12 $1,310 −$20 -2%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $4,240 +$30 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 11 $94 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $3,960 −$19 -0%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Apr 05 $383 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorn Apr 05 $628 −$29 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 04 $591 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 03 $59 −$57 -97%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Apr 03 $215 −$3 -1%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 02 $375 −$5 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 02 $48 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 01 $100 −$97 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Mar 31 $39 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 29 $100 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 28 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 28 $30 −$30 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Ma Mar 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Mar 27 $107 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $382 −$9 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $2,110 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 22 $291 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 21 $23 +$11 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 75¢ $75 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 75¢ $76 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $77 15h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $23 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,064.70 · official $1,064.70 (match) · 2266 history records