Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:31:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B6 0xb651…8d5f other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%3W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day6.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-31.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	50%	-7.2%
≤30d	6	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	50%	-7.2%
≤90d	6	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	50%	-7.2%
all	6	-24.4%	-31.6%	50%	50%	-7.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-31.6%	50%	-7.2%
10%	-38.1%	50%	-16.0%
15%	-44.1%	50%	-24.2%
20%	-49.6%	17%	-31.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 97% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$51 vs −$47 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.08 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$149

Realized+$16

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses3 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day6.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$150	$149	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$246	+$123	+50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$7	+$4	+62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$40	−$40	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$61	+$25	+42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$60	−$60	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$102	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$369	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$134	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$101	20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$11	20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	61¢	$7	22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$40	30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$40	30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	98¢	$86	42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$61	47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$60	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.48 · official $149.48 (match) · 15 history records