Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:20:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb652…64fb other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$346 (+9%) realized +$381 · open −$35
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$2,926now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$374
sports 4% +$24
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% +29.4%
≤30d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% +29.4%
≤90d 20 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% +29.4%
all 20 -6.1% -15.0% 30% 30% +29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 30% +29.4%
10% -23.2% 20% +17.1%
15% -30.6% 20% +5.7%
20% -37.4% 20% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -63% → late +51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$8 · ×11.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.75 per $1 lost it wins $4.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2,926
Realized+$381
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)20 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2,651 $2,641 −$10 (-0%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 54¢ 51¢ $72 $68 −$4 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 $0 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $243 +$32 +13%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$80 +776%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $445 +$387 +87%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $47 +$27 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $18 −$4 -21%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$12 +66%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $86 +$10 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 38m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 38m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 39m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 40m
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 46m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $10 48m
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $103 52m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $7 57m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,728 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $158 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $162 5h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $21 5h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $304 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 25h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,926.23 · official $2,925.40 (match) · 68 history records