Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb653…b87f culture 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$153 (-3%) realized −$167 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%49W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$248
14 days−$335
30 days−$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$64
culture 26% −$60
sports 19% −$167
world 9% +$39
crypto 1% −$25
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.1% -28.6% 39% 39% -24.6%
≤30d 49 -26.3% -33.3% 37% 37% -28.4%
≤90d 61 -36.2% -42.3% 33% 31% -36.8%
all 97 -15.3% -23.4% 51% 41% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 41% -13.0%
10% -30.7% 32% -21.3%
15% -37.4% 25% -28.9%
20% -43.5% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses49 / 48
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage158d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 90¢ $163 $192 +$29 (+18%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 75¢ $90 $76 −$14 (-16%)
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will "Dune: Messiah" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Yes 79¢ 77¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 75¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $140 +$19 +14%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +91%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $82 +$75 +91%
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards Jun 17 $30 −$2 -5%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 +$34 +55%
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -8%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $40 +$23 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $27 +$13 +47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$10 +163%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $28 +$17 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $221 −$220 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$62 +81%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -61%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 13 $60 −$17 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $55 +$62 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $25 −$5 -20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$33 +129%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $12 +$11 +90%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$18 -91%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Mar 21 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $164 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $48 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 6h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $157 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $82 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $82 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $84 8h
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards SELL Yes 72¢ $29 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $30 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $30 21h
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox $2 26h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $62 26h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $62 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $40 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $18 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $16 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.57 · official $351.57 (match) · 309 history records