Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb65a…034a sports 52 markets active 6h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
crypto 31% −$13
sports 14% +$5
politics 7% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -23.5% -30.8% 27% 27% -20.0%
≤30d 51 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 27% -18.8%
≤90d 51 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 27% -18.8%
all 51 -16.6% -24.6% 33% 27% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 27% -18.8%
10% -31.8% 20% -26.6%
15% -38.4% 16% -33.7%
20% -44.4% 12% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 41¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +63%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 $0 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$3 +27%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $1 +$2 +197%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 41¢ $1 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $1 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 11h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $1 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $1 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 15h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 99¢ $2 36h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $1 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 38h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 38h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $1 38h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 51¢ $1 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 52¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $5 4d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.65 · official $2.65 (match) · 142 history records