Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb65b…516b other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$38 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate30%39W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$481now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$284
14 days+$137
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$11
other 28% +$159
sports 10% −$156
politics 9% −$12
crypto 8% −$13
tech 4% −$23
economics 2% −$2
culture 1% −$10
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -5.1% -14.2% 33% 22% +27.3%
≤30d 56 -18.8% -26.6% 11% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 94 -13.1% -21.4% 19% 2% -9.8%
all 132 -9.5% -18.1% 30% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -25.9% 5% -18.4%
15% -33.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -39.7% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 89% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$481
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses39 / 93
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)132 / 138
History coverage158d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $342 $339 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $94 $91 −$3 (-3%)
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? Yes 21¢ 12¢ $80 $47 −$33 (-41%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-78%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs South Jun 25 $12 +$1 +7%
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr Jun 24 $16 −$4 -21%
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs U Jun 24 $12 −$1 -5%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the South Africa vs South Korea Jun 24 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the South Africa vs So Jun 24 $0 $0 -28%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl Jun 24 $13 −$3 -22%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$166 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $260 +$190 +73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $124 −$122 -98%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 19 $103 −$23 -22%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $12 $0 -3%
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central Jun 18 $7 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $28 −$11 -40%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $13 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 08 $83 −$8 -10%
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? Jun 08 $27 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $18 −$9 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$9 -13%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 −$16 -16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $101 −$8 -8%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $11 −$2 -14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 06 $74 −$3 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $4 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 04 $11 −$2 -20%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $18 −$1 -5%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $8 −$5 -63%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 03 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 03 $44 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 02 $28 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $347 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 1h
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs South SELL No 40¢ $2 2d
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr SELL Yes 65¢ $13 2d
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs U SELL Yes 56¢ $11 2d
Will the announcers say "Los Angeles" 5+ times during the Turkiye vs U BUY Yes 58¢ $12 2d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs South BUY No 59¢ $6 2d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs South SELL No 58¢ $6 2d
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the South Africa vs South BUY No 59¢ $6 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the South Africa vs South Korea SELL Yes 70¢ $14 2d
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the South Africa vs South Korea BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the South Africa vs So SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the South Africa vs So BUY No 4¢ $0 2d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl SELL Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA Worl BUY Yes 63¢ $13 2d
Will the announcers say "Comeback” or “Come Back" during the South Afr BUY Yes 82¢ $16 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $304 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $260 7d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $124 7d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL Yes 13¢ $81 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 7d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa SELL Yes 57¢ $11 8d
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa BUY Yes 58¢ $12 8d
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central SELL No 34¢ $6 8d
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central BUY No 34¢ $7 8d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 14d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 14d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 14d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $481.18 · official $481.18 (match) · 400 history records