Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb65c…e925 sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$226 (+7%) realized +$230 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$431
14 days+$152
30 days+$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$186
other 12% +$7
politics 7% +$2
crypto 7% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -28.0% -34.9% 57% 20% -36.7%
≤30d 63 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 63 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 33% -4.4%
all 63 -5.3% -14.3% 54% 33% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 33% -4.4%
10% -22.5% 30% -13.5%
15% -30.0% 22% -21.9%
20% -36.9% 17% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage20d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 23 $46 $0 +1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $190 +$2 +1%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $144 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $182 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +95%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Libema Open: Bianca Andreescu vs Elise Mertens Jun 20 $59 −$46 -78%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Royan (Doubles): Fancutt/Rai vs Hsu/Zhu Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $31 +$51 +166%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $137 +$177 +129%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 11 $61 +$115 +188%
Set Handicap: Martinez (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) Jun 11 $84 +$115 +136%
Set Handicap: Mboko/Williams (-1.5) vs Fernandez/Siegemund (+1.5) Jun 11 $70 −$16 -23%
Hikaru Sato vs. Kurea Hayasaka: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $79 −$4 -5%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $81 +$35 +43%
ITF Nyiregyhaza: William Grant vs Jeremy Schifris Jun 10 $82 −$3 -3%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Maximillian Figl Jun 10 $58 +$16 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $51 45m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru SELL Yes 92¢ $46 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $192 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 98¢ $190 29h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 33h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $144 37h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $187 46h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 89¢ $54 47h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 79¢ $101 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $10 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 59¢ $12 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 74¢ $15 2d
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY Yes 91¢ $46 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.12 · official $47.62 · 176 history records