Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:03:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb661…34f4 weather 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate86%118W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$24
sports 0% $0
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 32 -6.1% -15.0% 91% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 102 -2.9% -12.1% 92% 1% -9.4%
all 138 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% -9.2%
10% -20.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -28.3% 4% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses118 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)138 / 140
History coverage115d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? Jun 22 $70 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? Jun 20 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $68 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 29? May 30 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 28? May 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? May 29 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 27? May 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 25? May 26 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 24? May 25 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on May 23? May 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 22? May 23 $67 +$1 +1%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 21? May 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 15? May 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on May 14? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 14? May 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? May 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on May 11? May 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on May 10? May 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on May 9? May 10 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on May 9? May 09 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $70 31h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $68 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $69 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $69 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $69 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $69 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $69 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $68 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $68 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 90¢ $1 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $69 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $69 11d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $69 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $69 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $69 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $69 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $69 16d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $69 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $69 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $69 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $68 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $68 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $68 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $67 25d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $47 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $68 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.97 · official $69.97 (match) · 277 history records