Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb662…ed64 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,373 (-1%) realized −$1,374 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,263per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$12
14 days−$28
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,385
politics 34% −$68
sports 7% +$63
economics 4% −$8
world 3% −$6
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 42 +4.9% -5.1% 10% 5% -9.5%
≤90d 117 +0.1% -9.5% 9% 7% -10.4%
all 122 +0.1% -9.5% 9% 7% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 7% -10.3%
10% -18.1% 7% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 7% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,709) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$16 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$1,374
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,263
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $186 $188 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,915 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,267 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,213 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,709 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,438 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $839 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,091 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,710 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $785 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $796 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $964 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,604 −$5 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $709 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $59 +$112 +188%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $885 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $2,447 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,329 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $922 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $50 +$61 +124%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,287 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $262 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 02 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,848 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,378 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $498 −$1 -0%
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $55 +$38 +70%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $522 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $423 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $424 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $460 22h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $461 24h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $417 25h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $417 27h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $363 28h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $364 31h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $404 44h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $404 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $527 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $528 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $673 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $674 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $712 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $713 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $838 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $839 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $612 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $612 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $598 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $599 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $613 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $614 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $602 9d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $603 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $784 10d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $785 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $187.68 · official $187.68 (match) · 398 history records