Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb667…6a16 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$201 (+8%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$344
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 42% +2.5%
≤30d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 42% +2.5%
≤90d 12 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 42% +2.5%
all 12 -1.4% -10.8% 83% 42% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 42% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 8% -7.3%
15% -27.1% 0% -16.3%
20% -34.2% 0% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$2 · ×14.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.06 per $1 lost it wins $72.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $465 +$98 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $429 +$36 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $200 +$14 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 +$39 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $301 +$43 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $275 +$36 +13%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 +$6 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $214 +$55 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $563 9m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 82¢ $465 47m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $465 52m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $429 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $215 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $200 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $217 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $200 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 15¢ $0 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $1 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $341 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $301 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $47 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $344 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $301 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $312 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $275 22h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 96¢ $156 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 92¢ $150 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $269 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $13 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $201 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records