Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb66e…7fe2 sports 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$324 (-2%) realized −$268 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate68%115W / 55L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$13
14 days−$43
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$414
crypto 21% −$176
other 5% −$354
weather 3% −$116
politics 2% −$34
world 2% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +4.9% -5.1% 63% 59% -10.7%
≤30d 86 +2.6% -7.1% 60% 55% -13.0%
≤90d 170 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 50% -12.1%
all 170 +0.2% -9.3% 68% 50% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 50% -12.1%
10% -18.0% 33% -20.5%
15% -25.9% 25% -28.2%
20% -33.2% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$56 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses115 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions5
Markets (closed)170 / 175
History coverage42d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-22%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $56 $0 −$56 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $50 +$18 +36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $36 +$13 +37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$41 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +140%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $140 +$3 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $228 −$88 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +126%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $128 −$126 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +17%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$28 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$20 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +162%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $91 +$59 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 +$7 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $53 +$22 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$9 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$6 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 49¢ $57 31h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 34h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 40¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $38 40h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $50 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 72¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 64¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 67¢ $23 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $39 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 70¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $5 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 73¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $140 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 57¢ $141 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $228 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.81 · official $66.81 (match) · 433 history records