Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B6 0xb66f…8ed1 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$452 (+3%) realized +$494 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$180now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$720
14 days−$506
30 days+$363
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$224
sports 7% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -35.3% -41.5% 29% 29% -28.6%
≤30d 38 +14.9% +4.0% 34% 32% -6.8%
≤90d 38 +14.9% +4.0% 34% 32% -6.8%
all 38 +14.9% +4.0% 34% 32% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 32% -6.8%
10% -6.0% 32% -15.7%
15% -15.1% 32% -23.9%
20% -23.4% 21% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +67% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$370 vs −$178 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$180
Realized+$494
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage19d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $72 $74 +$2 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $58 −$42 (-42%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $51 −$1 -1%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $506 −$212 -42%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,514 +$691 +46%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $71 +$95 +134%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,213 +$662 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$314 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -9%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,539 −$903 -59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$1 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$2 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $818 −$337 -41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$379 +1845%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $704 −$700 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $711 +$765 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$296 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,167 +$491 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $74 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $50 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $294 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $506 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $204 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 7d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $71 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,213 9d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 9d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 10d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 10d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $41 10d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 12d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $636 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 13d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.62 · official $179.62 (match) · 90 history records