Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb674…b925 crypto 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 296d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-3%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$6
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$235
crypto 9% +$73
sports 5% +$84
world 1% +$1
weather 0% +$11
economics 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +22.8% +11.1% 60% 56% -12.0%
≤30d 29 +18.3% +7.0% 59% 55% -11.0%
≤90d 50 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 50% -6.4%
all 90 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 44% -11.3%
10% -17.0% 34% -19.8%
15% -25.0% 24% -27.5%
20% -32.4% 17% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

296d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage296d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -2%
BNB Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $5 −$2 -32%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 26 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $4 +$1 +23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 15 $3 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 15 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 15 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on April 15? Apr 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C or higher on April 15? Apr 15 $4 +$14 +332%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 15 Apr 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on April 15? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $16 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 319 history records