Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb679…0e5e sports 566 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-3%) realized −$71 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%206W / 270L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$9
14 days−$11
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$22
world 32% +$56
other 18% −$85
politics 10% −$36
finance 4% −$12
tech 2% +$7
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 36% -12.2%
≤30d 216 +1.7% -8.0% 45% 28% -11.9%
≤90d 476 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 32% -15.4%
all 476 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 32% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 32% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 26% -23.5%
15% -29.9% 22% -30.9%
20% -36.8% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$318
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses206 / 270
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions90
Markets (closed)476 / 566
History coverage64d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 476 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 34¢ 51¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+53%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 30¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+20%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 14¢ 24¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+70%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+24%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by August 30? No 42¢ 68¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+63%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 87¢ 94¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? No 70¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 52¢ 57¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 79¢ 83¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 68¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 29¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 44¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 60¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 11¢ 10¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +138%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -78%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $7 −$3 -34%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -95%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -55%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -46%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +186%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $6 +$7 +123%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $12 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9 −$2 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +36%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +276%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -29%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $1 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $3 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $1 1h
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 1h
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 28¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL No 50¢ $2 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 72¢ $4 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 58¢ $3 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY No 60¢ $3 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 16¢ $1 7h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 15¢ $1 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 8h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 69¢ $3 9h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 70¢ $4 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 55¢ $3 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 18¢ $1 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 42¢ $2 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.69 · official $317.28 (match) · 2023 history records