Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb679…dbb1 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$206 (+24%) realized +$322 · open −$116
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days+$345
14 days+$320
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 59% +$255
other 35% −$57
sports 5% −$1
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +36.1% +23.1% 46% 46% +58.9%
≤30d 34 +18.8% +7.5% 44% 44% +34.7%
≤90d 34 +18.8% +7.5% 44% 44% +34.7%
all 34 +18.8% +7.5% 44% 44% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 44% +34.7%
10% -2.8% 41% +21.8%
15% -12.2% 41% +10.0%
20% -20.8% 35% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +89% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$15 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$322
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Yes 41¢ 45¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? Jun 25 $21 −$16 -75%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$3 +66%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +80%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $103 +$134 +130%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $83 +$238 +286%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$40 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$28 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$33 +318%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $21 +$48 +230%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 43h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 43h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 43h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 45h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $24 45h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 25? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? SELL Yes 97¢ $237 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? BUY Yes 41¢ $103 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $321 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 25¢ $83 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.68 · official $63.68 (match) · 84 history records