Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:32:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb681…366c crypto 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-5%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate41%73W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$56
14 days−$56
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$383
other 0% −$2
finance 0% $0
sports 0% −$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 31% -18.4%
≤30d 47 -18.8% -26.5% 43% 34% -17.1%
≤90d 178 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 31% -17.5%
all 178 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 31% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 31% -17.5%
10% -31.2% 25% -25.4%
15% -37.8% 19% -32.6%
20% -43.9% 12% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses73 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)178 / 178
History coverage54d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 178 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $39 −$7 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $90 −$31 -35%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $52 +$23 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 31 $41 +$29 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $50 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 31 $24 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $39 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $22 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $12 −$8 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $24 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 31 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 31 $26 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 31 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $84 −$47 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 30 $68 −$16 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 29 $33 −$7 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $12 +$10 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $62 −$56 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $77 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 29 $53 +$20 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 29 $112 −$27 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $197 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $42 +$20 +49%
LoL: Ronaldo Team vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 29 $26 −$6 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 29 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 29 $40 −$25 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $50 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 14 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 14 $12 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 761 history records