Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb682…5609 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$35
crypto 34% −$44
sports 4% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.9% -10.4% 60% 60% -11.2%
≤30d 61 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 44% -8.6%
≤90d 61 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 44% -8.6%
all 61 +0.3% -9.3% 44% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 44% -8.6%
10% -18.0% 41% -17.3%
15% -25.9% 41% -25.3%
20% -33.2% 41% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage26d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $125 +$22 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$21 +89%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 +$22 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $35 −$12 -33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 24 $285 −$147 -52%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$106 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 24 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? May 24 $141 −$19 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 23 $72 +$68 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $10 +$8 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 22 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 22 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 22 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 22 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 22 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 22 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $147 13m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 14m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $125 2h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $125 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $23 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 17h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 23h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $45 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 21d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 21d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 21d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $157 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $45 21d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 22d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 22d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? SELL Yes 74¢ $122 22d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? BUY Yes 84¢ $141 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $72 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.65 · official $301.65 (match) · 105 history records