Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:05:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb687…29e6 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$267 (-36%) realized −$264 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$264
other 12% −$61
politics 7% −$2
sports 2% +$4
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -26.7% -33.7% 40% 40% -37.7%
≤30d 15 -26.7% -33.7% 40% 40% -37.7%
≤90d 29 -37.8% -43.7% 34% 34% -57.9%
all 29 -37.8% -43.7% 34% 34% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 34% -57.9%
10% -49.1% 28% -62.0%
15% -54.0% 24% -65.6%
20% -58.5% 21% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage50d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$37 +143%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Jun 25 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $5 +$6 +110%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -94%
LoL: Myth Esports vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regul May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 07 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 07 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 07 $26 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 12h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 20¢ $52 12h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 13h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 13h
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 41d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 42d
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.39 · official $72.39 (match) · 55 history records