Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb68a…4b68 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$52
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +10.5% -0.1% 88% 75% -1.1%
≤30d 8 +10.5% -0.1% 88% 75% -1.1%
≤90d 8 +10.5% -0.1% 88% 75% -1.1%
all 8 +10.5% -0.1% 88% 75% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 75% -1.1%
10% -9.6% 50% -10.6%
15% -18.4% 25% -19.2%
20% -26.4% 12% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$22 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $10 +$3 +29%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $120 +$16 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $20 +$7 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $51 +$32 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $301 +$8 +3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$6 +27%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $19 +$3 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $13 48m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $136 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $100 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 81¢ $10 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $10 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $27 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 67¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $82 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 57¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $10 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 76¢ $10 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $310 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 97¢ $300 5h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 71¢ $1 7h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 78¢ $20 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $20 26h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $1 26h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 0¢ $1 26h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $22 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $18 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $1 28h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.19 · official $2.19 (match) · 29 history records