Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb68a…ce1f sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$373 (-6%) realized −$343 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$431
14 days−$467
30 days−$467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$152
other 40% −$457
politics 15% +$126
crypto 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -11.8% -20.2% 53% 42% -16.7%
≤30d 40 -11.4% -19.9% 52% 42% -17.0%
≤90d 40 -11.4% -19.9% 52% 42% -17.0%
all 40 -11.4% -19.9% 52% 42% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -17.0%
10% -27.5% 35% -25.0%
15% -34.5% 20% -32.2%
20% -40.9% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$88 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$643
Realized−$343
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions4
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage7d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 64¢ 76¢ $307 $362 +$55 (+18%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $134 $131 −$3 (-2%)
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 32¢ 28¢ $96 $82 −$14 (-14%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $134 $67 −$68 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $86 −$40 -47%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $129 +$5 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $85 +$40 +47%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $141 +$45 +32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $147 −$6 -4%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $166 −$20 -12%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $88 +$78 +89%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $697 −$721 -103%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $114 +$36 +32%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $138 +$46 +34%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 20 $64 −$4 -6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $36 +$24 +67%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $56 −$9 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $185 −$23 -13%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $70 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $257 +$31 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $208 +$17 +8%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $24 +$7 +30%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$4 +22%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $180 −$160 -89%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $159 +$50 +31%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $230 +$20 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $294 +$206 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $157 +$43 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $600 +$84 +14%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 −$17 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $237 +$94 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $274 +$126 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 +$70 +117%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $118 −$118 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $89 +$83 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $136 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 92¢ $129 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 61¢ $86 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $66 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $3 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $135 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 96¢ $129 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 95¢ $125 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $85 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 98¢ $89 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $87 6h
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 32¢ $99 13h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $141 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $141 24h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $147 24h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 81¢ $147 24h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $166 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $88 31h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $98 35h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 36h
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 64¢ $260 37h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $663 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 61¢ $60 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $47 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 33¢ $162 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $642.56 · official $642.56 (match) · 161 history records