Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb68c…2add politics 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 714d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+1%) realized +$142 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%57W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$495
other 19% +$64
world 11% −$44
economics 6% −$10
finance 3% −$212
crypto 2% −$36
sports 2% −$64
culture 0% −$40
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +117.4% +96.7% 100% 100% +51.9%
≤30d 2 +117.4% +96.7% 100% 100% +51.9%
≤90d 15 +27.3% +15.1% 80% 33% -3.7%
all 92 +3.9% -6.0% 62% 40% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 40% -8.3%
10% -15.0% 27% -17.0%
15% -23.2% 18% -25.1%
20% -30.7% 13% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$37 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

714d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$142
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses57 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage714d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 97¢ 99¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 +$16 +182%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? May 17 $89 +$3 +4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $717 +$25 +3%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $25 +$2 +10%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Apr 24 $38 +$3 +8%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $185 −$36 -19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $216 −$46 -22%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 14 $370 +$28 +8%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $124 +$24 +19%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $50 +$30 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $34 +$65 +192%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $36 +$4 +10%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $381 −$44 -12%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 23 $371 +$93 +25%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 19 $259 +$51 +20%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeti Mar 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during the Black History Month reception? Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or higher on February 18? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Mar 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? (February 8) Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Sam Altman say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" on The Tonight Show on Decem Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 8) Mar 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Casting at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 17 $24 +$6 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 08 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 06 $150 +$20 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 05 $130 −$2 -2%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $281 +$9 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $142 +$7 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 28 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Feb 22 $90 +$7 +8%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100 Feb 15 $258 −$171 -66%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125 Feb 13 $22 +$11 +49%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 15 Feb 12 $215 −$23 -11%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M Feb 11 $106 +$5 +4%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Feb 11 $170 +$26 +15%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 10 $45 +$26 +57%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 09 $10 +$4 +40%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 05 $325 −$1 -0%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $290 +$10 +4%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $132 −$4 -3%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meetin Jan 29 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $202 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $66 14d
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $8 27d
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? SELL No 92¢ $55 43d
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? SELL No 92¢ $18 43d
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? SELL No 92¢ $18 43d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 46d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 47d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 47d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 9¢ $28 47d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 8¢ $25 47d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 47d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 47d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 47d
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? BUY No 97¢ $17 57d
Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? BUY No 97¢ $31 57d
Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? BUY No 89¢ $89 63d
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $28 66d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $11 66d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $6 66d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $2 68d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $8 68d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $4 69d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $6 69d
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 70d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 47¢ $99 73d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 79¢ $166 74d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL No 83¢ $2 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.04 · official $55.04 (match) · 571 history records