Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb68c…7ef8 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$162 (-16%) realized −$192 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$185
14 days−$171
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$57
other 12% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -32.2% -38.7% 25% 25% -57.1%
≤30d 36 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 36% -27.4%
≤90d 36 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 36% -27.4%
all 36 -17.7% -25.5% 39% 36% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 36% -27.4%
10% -32.6% 36% -34.4%
15% -39.1% 33% -40.7%
20% -45.1% 33% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$22 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$192
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage23d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 82¢ $32 $54 +$23 (+72%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ 86¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+54%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Manel Kape 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Chivas Esports 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$32 -97%
ITF Tulsa: Marko Miladinovic vs Maximus Dussault Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $8 +$23 +276%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $36 −$35 -99%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $21 −$21 -98%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $46 +$59 +128%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $61 +$51 +84%
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 09 $51 +$5 +10%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 08 $58 +$18 +31%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $61 +$38 +62%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $48 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series May 31 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 31 $13 −$13 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $20 +$13 +63%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 30 $8 +$16 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $12 +$7 +60%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Comesana (+1.5) May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $15 +$12 +83%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Song Yadong win by KO or TKO? May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $13 +$26 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $15 −$2 -16%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $19 +$15 +79%
Roland Garros WTA: Alycia Parks vs Leylah Fernandez May 25 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $32 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 100¢ $32 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $33 2h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 100¢ $31 5h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $20 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 7h
ITF Tulsa: Marko Miladinovic vs Maximus Dussault BUY Marko Miladinovic 68¢ $20 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 20¢ $5 7h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $15 7h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $15 7h
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) BUY Chivas Esports 32¢ $20 7h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 26¢ $8 7h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $86 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 5d
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 51¢ $36 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher BUY Julia Grabher 31¢ $21 5d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan SELL Daniel Galan 100¢ $105 6d
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan BUY Daniel Galan 43¢ $46 6d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 25¢ $26 6d
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria SELL Tatjana Maria 99¢ $112 8d
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 53¢ $61 8d
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Darja Semenistaja 60¢ $56 8d
Modena: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 53¢ $51 8d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 71¢ $75 9d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 53¢ $58 9d
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus SELL Sinja Kraus 100¢ $98 9d
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 61¢ $61 9d
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler BUY McCartney Kessler 45¢ $48 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 43¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 48¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.22 · official $116.22 (match) · 60 history records