Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb68c…a863 sports 118 markets active 20h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+17%) realized +$120 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%28W / 66L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$28
14 days+$45
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$5
other 23% +$71
world 14% +$133
crypto 6% +$25
weather 3% −$27
politics 2% −$21
economics 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -30.4% -37.0% 13% 13% -40.8%
≤30d 37 +2.4% -7.4% 27% 24% +8.5%
≤90d 94 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 28% +4.7%
all 94 -1.1% -10.5% 30% 28% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 28% +4.7%
10% -19.1% 28% -5.3%
15% -26.9% 28% -14.5%
20% -34.1% 24% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$8 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses28 / 66
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions24
Markets (closed)94 / 118
History coverage113d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 74¢ $20 $74 +$54 (+268%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 32¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+188%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $5 +$21 +412%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 +$21 +414%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 +$43 +596%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$37 +517%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +194%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $11 +$21 +194%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? May 31 $27 +$43 +159%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Table" this week? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $15 +$5 +34%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 19 $20 −$17 -82%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $3 −$3 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 73¢ $26 19h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 20h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $11 38h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $4 41h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 42h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 1¢ $0 42h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $10 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 44h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 6d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.98 · official $150.98 (match) · 224 history records