Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb68e…8607 sports 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 652d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$121 (+1%) realized +$113 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%66W / 36L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$534
7 days+$534
14 days+$534
30 days+$534
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$336
other 25% +$476
politics 3% −$16
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% −$6
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.1% -0.4% 50% 50% +30.7%
≤30d 2 +10.1% -0.4% 50% 50% +30.7%
≤90d 29 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 62% -17.1%
all 102 +4.7% -5.2% 65% 44% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 44% -8.6%
10% -14.3% 30% -17.3%
15% -22.6% 26% -25.3%
20% -30.2% 18% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$126 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

652d coverage
Net worth$1,061
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses66 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage652d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $941 $949 +$8 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 26 $1,180 +$539 +46%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $20 −$5 -26%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 16 $615 −$613 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 06 $101 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers May 05 $4 +$7 +180%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner May 05 $15 +$3 +17%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A May 05 $11 +$9 +83%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 05 $10 +$10 +101%
Heat vs. Hornets May 05 $14 +$7 +48%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Gabriela Knutson May 05 $20 +$2 +12%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Tamara Korpatsch vs Diana Shnaider May 05 $19 +$4 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson May 05 $317 −$317 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Infinite (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $14 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playof Apr 14 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-07? Apr 14 $14 +$11 +80%
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5) Apr 14 $16 +$15 +91%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? Apr 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Stefanos Sakellaridi Apr 12 $976 −$976 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $1,071 +$987 +92%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 30 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 30 $17 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 30 $19 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 30 $28 +$5 +18%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Mar 29 $16 −$15 -91%
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 18 $15 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO5) - ESL Pro League Mar 18 $13 +$9 +72%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 18 $23 +$1 +5%
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrievers Mar 18 $843 +$873 +104%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili Poljicak Mar 17 $757 −$757 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 3 Winner Mar 17 $10 +$9 +89%
BNP Paribas Open: Sebastian Korda vs Francisco Comesana Mar 15 $14 +$3 +22%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin Mar 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 15 $13 +$8 +59%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $14 −$8 -58%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Passion UA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Mar 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 15 $621 −$582 -94%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Giovanni Mpetshi Mar 04 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 04 $14 +$7 +49%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Mar 04 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Mar 04 $20 +$14 +72%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 04 $12 −$8 -63%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $953 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,178 3d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $434 41d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY EDward Gaming 70¢ $181 41d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $96 51d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $32 51d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 71¢ $2 51d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 90¢ $4 51d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson BUY Martina Trevisan 33¢ $313 52d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martina Trevisan vs Talia Gibson BUY Martina Trevisan 33¢ $3 52d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Tamara Korpatsch vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 83¢ $19 73d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Gabriela Knutson BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 89¢ $20 73d
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Alex de Minaur 85¢ $15 73d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 73d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Legacy 67¢ $14 73d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY 3DMAX 54¢ $11 73d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 35¢ $4 73d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 60¢ $12 73d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Hornets 67¢ $14 73d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner SELL Jannik Sinner 100¢ $2,058 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $790 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $4 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $81 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $33 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $1 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $22 75d
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner BUY Jannik Sinner 52¢ $140 75d
Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5) BUY Jazz 52¢ $16 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,061.14 · official $1,061.14 (match) · 365 history records