Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B6 0xb693…6123 other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$358 (+11%) realized +$350 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$286
14 days+$408
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$241
sports 33% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.7% +38.2% 100% 100% +33.7%
≤30d 14 +18.3% +7.0% 79% 50% +11.4%
≤90d 14 +18.3% +7.0% 79% 50% +11.4%
all 14 +18.3% +7.0% 79% 50% +11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.0% 50% +11.4%
10% -3.2% 21% +0.7%
15% -12.6% 14% -9.0%
20% -21.2% 14% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$61 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,476
Realized+$350
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions9
Markets (closed)14 / 24
History coverage15d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 27 $127 +$203 +159%
Will Spain finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 27 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 26 $186 +$34 +18%
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 24 $279 +$48 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $89 −$88 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $155 +$33 +21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $59 +$156 +262%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $77 +$23 +30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $195 +$19 +10%
Will Jérémy Doku be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Leandro Trossard be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $96 +$9 +9%
Will Weston McKennie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FI Jun 13 $157 +$8 +5%
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 12 $64 −$64 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 24¢ $87 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $285 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND DR Congo to score fir BUY 17¢ $333 1h
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY Yes 91¢ $10 3h
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY Yes 91¢ $19 2d
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY Yes 91¢ $104 2d
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S BUY Yes 91¢ $48 2d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY Yes 85¢ $279 5d
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 5d
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $89 7d
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 7d
Will 7+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $59 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $59 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $63 9d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $14 9d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $155 9d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 93¢ $88 14d
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 14d
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 80¢ $8 14d
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 32¢ $50 14d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $50 14d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $4 14d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $5 14d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $18 14d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY No 78¢ $14 14d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 54¢ $1 14d
Will South Korea finish second in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 54¢ $5 14d
Will Weston McKennie be in the starting 11 for the USA's first 2026 FI BUY Yes 95¢ $109 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,475.57 · official $1,800.47 · 65 history records