Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:20:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb695…9ff8 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-6%) realized −$21 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate35%8W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$34
14 days−$33
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$26
finance 28% −$7
sports 9% −$28
politics 4% $0
weather 1% +$1
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.4% -32.5% 26% 16% -13.6%
≤30d 23 -20.6% -28.2% 35% 13% -13.5%
≤90d 23 -20.6% -28.2% 35% 13% -13.5%
all 23 -20.6% -28.2% 35% 13% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 13% -13.5%
10% -35.0% 9% -21.8%
15% -41.3% 4% -29.3%
20% -47.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses8 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage14d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners Under 92¢ 85¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-8%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 97¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $71 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$11 -19%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 −$3 -50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $34 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $128 −$2 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $82 +$1 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $146 −$8 -6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $145 −$7 -5%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +42%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Under 97¢ $30 34m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $13 54m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $30 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 93¢ $20 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 92¢ $10 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 88¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 26h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 26h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $32 26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL Yes $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 27h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No $0 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $32 28h
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 46h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes $37 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $0 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $2 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No $0 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $1 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No $2 2d
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.05 · official $6.05 (match) · 242 history records