Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb696…7973 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+17%) realized −$139 · open +$314
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$77
culture 30% −$96
other 29% +$264
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.5% -42.6% 33% 0% -39.7%
≤30d 5 -12.0% -20.4% 40% 20% -26.6%
≤90d 9 -6.5% -15.4% 56% 44% -33.3%
all 16 -14.2% -22.4% 50% 44% -32.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -32.1%
10% -29.8% 31% -38.6%
15% -36.6% 25% -44.5%
20% -42.8% 12% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$40 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$139
Unrealized+$314
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage183d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ $54 $266 +$212 (+393%)
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 14¢ 44¢ $47 $149 +$102 (+219%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 18 $74 −$63 -85%
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $88 +$8 +9%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $286 −$94 -33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? May 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $75 +$37 +50%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 13 $175 −$139 -80%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 25 $45 +$8 +18%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $31 +$13 +43%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $17 +$3 +20%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 16 $5 +$8 +156%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 26? Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on December 2 Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Dec 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win? Dec 26 $19 +$8 +43%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes $11 30m
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 33¢ $74 1h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 53¢ $96 1h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 47¢ $88 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $72 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $72 4d
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 14¢ $48 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $48 4d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $100 8d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 21d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $34 21d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 24d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 28¢ $40 24d
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $112 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $112 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $75 35d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $75 35d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 39¢ $52 53d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? SELL No 59¢ $53 53d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY No 50¢ $45 55d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? SELL No 87¢ $45 55d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 61¢ $31 60d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL No 12¢ $32 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 23¢ $102 64d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? SELL No 22¢ $4 64d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 20¢ $20 77d
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 93d
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa BUY Yes 76¢ $12 98d
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on BUY Yes 50¢ $5 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.65 · official $414.65 (match) · 46 history records