Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:45:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B6 0xb696…4367 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$689 (+193%) realized +$689 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 63L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$6
30 days+$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$680
crypto 30% −$4
sports 16% +$3
world 15% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.4% -7.3% 55% 48% -1.8%
≤30d 78 +43.6% +29.9% 42% 35% +192.9%
≤90d 108 +32.2% +19.6% 42% 36% +166.7%
all 108 +32.2% +19.6% 42% 36% +166.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.6% 36% +166.7%
10% +8.2% 28% +141.2%
15% -2.3% 20% +117.9%
20% -11.8% 13% +96.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +195% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +195% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$1 · ×21.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.64 per $1 lost it wins $15.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 63
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -37%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $21 −$5 -26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 14 $0 $0 -31%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +77%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $19 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +186%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 $0 -24%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -87%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $19 +$6 +31%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $0 $0 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -5%
Tyler (Doubles): Basel/Oliveira vs Pearson/Puttergill Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $2 $0 +5%
Roland Garros Juniors, Boys: Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka vs Nicolas Ba Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $1 $0 -45%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have the most goal contributions in the 202 May 30 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 30 $0 $0 -25%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $3 −$2 -72%
Hamburg European Open (Doubles): Andreozzi/Guinard vs Atmane/Etcheverr May 20 $0 +$1 +899%
Will António Silva be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup s May 20 $1 +$11 +1878%
Valorant: INTZ vs la Masia (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: TBK Esports vs F4TALITY (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group A May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: Miposhka Team vs by Owl Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle May 19 $3 +$8 +254%
Will Mateus Fernandes be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cu May 19 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $7 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 19h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 20h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 47¢ $9 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 62¢ $12 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes $0 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 32¢ $6 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 44¢ $9 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 23h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes $0 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 438 history records