Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb699…f7bd world 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$1
other 30% +$1
sports 19% −$1
politics 14% −$4
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 27 -1.0% -10.4% 41% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 36 -0.8% -10.3% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 46 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage481d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $45 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $26 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $7 −$2 -36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $44 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $12 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 22 $33 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $451 +$1 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $140 −$2 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $231 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $41 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $254 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $8 $0 +0%
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota Mar 04 $13 −$3 -24%
Hornets vs. Kings Mar 04 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 25 $2 $0 +11%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Feb 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Feb 22 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $35 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $6 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $11 9h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $32 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $16 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $15 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $31 35h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $31 38h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $21 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $21 47h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $31 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $31 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $7 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $25 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records